Spring Statement (Forecast) 2026
03 March 2026The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves MP, delivered her spring forecast at lunchtime on 03 March 2026. As was widely expected, she used her speech to try to emphasise stability and strength in UK public finances as a buffer against increasingly uncertain geopolitical situations.
The messaging from the government in the run-up to today’s announcements was firmly that this would be a ‘non-event’, with no major policy announcements. Even the change of wording from ‘statement’ to ‘forecast’ seemed to be focused on playing it down, and at one point, it was even suggested that a junior minister might deliver the forecast, rather than the Chancellor herself. It was clear that the intention was to avoid the widespread and damaging speculation that occurred in the run-up to the historically late Budget in November 2025.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) must produce two economic forecasts each financial year. The first was for the Budget in November 2025, and the second was for today’s spring forecast.
Until recently, at the same time as its economic forecasts, the OBR also included a formal assessment of the government’s fiscal rules (i.e., whether the Chancellor is on course to meet their targets for the public finances). Following changes announced at the last Budget, the OBR will now only formally assess these rules once a year, at the Budget, and therefore the 2026 spring forecast was the first not to include a formal assessment of the fiscal rules.
The change was introduced to reinforce the Chancellor’s intention that the yearly Budget is the only event at which the government makes major tax and spending policy announcements, in order to try to provide greater certainty and stability for businesses and households.
So what came out of the spring forecast? The latest estimates for growth, inflation, government spending, tax income and unemployment were released by the OBR, although it is important to remember that these do not take into account any impact of the rise in oil and gas prices from the bombing of Iran by the US on the weekend prior to the forecast.
The updated growth forecasts from the OBR were largely unchanged from the April 2025 forecasts, although growth in 2026 was downgraded slightly. However, gross domestic product (GDP) per person is now set to grow more than was expected in the autumn, by 5.6% over the course of this parliament. Unemployment is set to peak later in 2026, with falls then forecast each year of the forecast period. Public sector net borrowing is expected to continue to fall, as is inflation.
Only time will tell whether these forecasts are realistic, given the uncertainty and instability the world continues to face. It is no coincidence that one of the first points the Chancellor made in her statement was on increased defence spending.
No individual advice is provided during the course of this blog.
Keith Churchouse FPFS
Director
CFP Chartered FCSI
Chartered Financial Planner
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